Wrexham vs Middlesbrough

Wrexham’s scoring route splits the work between Moore as finisher and Whiteman as creator. Moore has five goals in 13 season appearances and 3.33 shots per game over his last three; Whiteman has one goal and one assist, plus 2.5 key passes per game, in his last two. For Middlesbrough, Lankshear’s finishing is paired with Cozier-Duberry’s chance creation: Lankshear has 13 season goals and five in his last three, while Cozier-Duberry has five season assists and three in his last three. Conway adds a link, averaging 3.0 key passes per game over his last three. That combination can test Wrexham’s recent lack of shots on target.

Wrexham’s clearest constraint is its recent lack of accuracy: only 3.0 shots on target per game over the last five, with no goal in two of them. In the loss at Sheffield, it managed one shot on target from nine attempts and an xG of 0.60. Home form offers a route through: 1.8 goals per game and a 2W-1D-2L record across the last five at home, better than its overall recent run. Moore’s five goals in 13 season appearances give Wrexham a scoring outlet, but whether that attack can unsettle Middlesbrough remains the question.

Middlesbrough’s recent record is formidable: four wins and a draw in its last five, averaging 2.8 goals for and 1.0 against; its season record is 8W-4D-1L in 13 games. Its away record is less overwhelming than that run suggests. The last five away games brought three wins, a draw and a loss, with 2.2 goals for and 1.6 against per game—enough to support a win, not to guarantee a rout. The 3-0 win over Charlton, in which Middlesbrough allowed no shots on target, is encouraging, but one match does not establish a recurring away defensive pattern.

The last three meetings went 1L-2D from Wrexham’s perspective, with the goals narrowly split 3-4. That pattern alone does not point to one-sided Middlesbrough dominance. Current form is a different test: Wrexham is 1W-1D-3L in its last five, while Middlesbrough is 4W-1D, and Wrexham managed only one shot on target against Sheffield. The close head-to-head is relevant, but the question is whether the current gap in attacking form breaks that balance.